Deploying AU forces won’t Solve Somalia’s problems without a change of guard in the current Leadership.
Factional violence has again become a feature of life in Mogadishu since last month when Somali government troops with crucial support from Ethiopian soldiers, tanks and warplanes ousted the Islamic movement. Violence and Bombings have become a daily occurrence and life in Mogadishu seems to have returned to the era of warlordism.
Mogadishu residents who have enjoyed a short period of normalcy under the Islamic Union of Courts are calling for their return and are voicing their opposition to the weak Somali Interim Government. Earlier Thursday, hundreds of supporters of Somalia’s ousted Islamic group demonstrated in the capital against an imminent deployment of foreign peacekeepers. The protesters called for the return of the Islamic movement, which was credited with restoring order in the violent nation.
What is clear from all these developments is that Somalis in general and residents of Mogadishu have very little confidence in the interim administration headed by Abdullahi Yussuf, a former warlord himself. Can you blame them? No, I can’t blame them because I have no confidence with this group myself either. I never believed, will never believe even once that this administration will be able to solve the complex Somali problem. This administration consists mostly of warlords and no name individuals who haven’t grasped the dire situation their nation is in. Prime Minister Gedi, President Abdullahi Yussuf and the collection of no name individuals and warlords in the current interim parliament have shown zero potential or capability of dealing with or solving the dire complex Somalia problem.
What Somalia needs is leadership and no one in the interim government has shown that. The Islamic movement was successful pacifying Mogadishu and other regions because it had individuals like Sheikh Sheriff Ahmed and others who had demonstrated an understanding of the population and the country. They have shown what members of the interim government and its leaders lack; leadership. Somalia needs leaders who understand the challenges they are facing and who are willing to act decisively. The current leaders have become a bunch of talkers with nothing but rhetoric. Look at this statement from deputy defense minister Salad Ali Jelle talking about last night’s Mogadishu attacks where more than 20 people died in their sleeps; "We have suspects and we know the areas where they plan their attacks," he told the AP by telephone. "We will punish them." Does this statement show someone who is in command of the security situation of Mogadishu, leave alone the whole country? What this statements shows is someone who is reacting to the situation, has no command of what is unfolding and lack of planning. This is a clear demonstration of the whole Somalia problem. What Somalia needs aren’t AU forces, but leadership.
The Security Council urged the African Union to quickly send peacekeepers to Somalia so that Ethiopia could withdraw its forces and the government could lift its emergency security measures. The 15-nation U.N. council, in a statement, also backed the rapid deployment of a U.N. technical assistance mission to Somalia to make recommendations on future security needs. The Security Council continuously demonstrates its political agenda rather than contribute constructively to genuine Somali reconciliation. The UN has lost all credibility with the majority of Somalis and might not have any political capital to spend or influence any faction of the Somali political spectrum. What the UN can do and still capable is to mobilize enough resources to support the general population to change the underlying economic situation, which can have a profound influence in the political reconciliation.
The African Union Summit, which recently ended in Addis Ababa, failed to come up with the targeted 8000 peacekeepers. I firmly believe no amount or number of African or United Nation peacekeepers can make any peace in Somalia. Any peacekeeping force deployed in the country will only become a target for new Somalia insurgency. Majority of the Somali population are opposed to the deployment of AU forces and any deployment will incite more Somalis to join the low level insurgency mostly from former warlords who have lost their place in Somalia and from remnants of the Islamist. AU governments are already second guessing themselves, which is a bad sign itself. Their failure to boldly face the situation in Somalia and send an overwhelming forces numbering more than 50,000 Troops shows that they are already predicting the failure of the mission they are about to commit in Somalia.
African Union peace mission in Somalia is doomed to fail, because of African Union’s unwillingness to deploy enough credible force into the country. Any peacekeeping mission will end up similar to the 1992 mission. It might even be uglier and end sooner than many might want to admit.
What Somalia needs is leadership. The interim Somali government has repeatedly demonstrated its inability to tackle Somalia’s problems and it might be time Ethiopia and the rest of the world understand that and accept it. Somalis are paying the price for the blunders of neighboring countries chiefly Ethiopia and Kenya, for not allowing Somalis to elect capable leaders in Eldoret. Ethiopia and Kenya have interfered every inch of the way in the Eldoret process and were the architects of this failing administration.
The Sad fact is that the current interim administration led by Abdullahi Yussuf wants everything to be done for them by Ethiopia and the world community. May be, this is what neighboring countries were seeking; a puppet Somali government that will look only after the neighboring countries interests. What Ethiopia and Kenya have to understand is that a secure,viable, functioning Somali government is in their interest short and long term. A chaotic Somalia does no good to any neighboring country including Ethiopia. Infact, it is against our interest and that of Kenya, period.
Somalia is back to square one and this might be the last chance to safe the country from further disintegration. If the world community does not take drastic measures within the coming weeks, it might be the end of the Somalia we know today. I predict the disintegration of Somalia into Small enclaves of Nations and further bloodshed if the current interim government fails to act quickly and I mean very quickly in the coming weeks. I don’t see any more appetite for another peace conferences as called by president Abdullahi Yussuf. Somalis have lost faith with all these reconciliation conferences and majority honestly don’t see the need for these conferences because they see their problem attributable to interference to neighboring countries.
What is needed from Abdullahi Yussuf is leadership. Yussuf must come with a plan to solve his country's problems. He should start listening to his people and not foreign advice or dictation. He needs to act now and deploy not foreigners but Somalia's smartest and educated professionals. Somalia has enough expatriates and educated elite who are more than capable of running their country if they were given the opportunity. And that is what Somalis and Somalia Needs. True, capable, genuine leaders who can bring together the whole country and who can act on their complex problems decisively.
Fatuma Dirir
KIlil5 Assistant Editor.
VOA 13pm GMT
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