It will be a big mistake if Ethiopia pulls out troops prematurely

01/20/07
    

Prime minister Zenawi has declared the second time in two weeks that Ethiopian troops will start withdrawing Somalia, a country that has known nothing but chaos for the past twenty years. The prime minister has told the BBC that Ethiopian troops will start withdrawing from Somalia within days but in three phases. This will be a big mistake because Ethiopia’s declared mission is half done.

The prime minister himself has stated the goals of sending our troops to Somalia as follows: disarming the Islamic militants who have threatened this country’s security, help the Somali interim government to stand on its feet, Stabilize Somalia and disarm the warlord militia.

So far, Ethiopian troops have disbanded the Islamist militia, enabled the weak interim Somali government to move to Mogadishu and have only begun disarming the warlord militia. However, the most difficult job still remains and Islamist forces who have brilliantly made good of their promise to wage a guerilla insurgency to frustrate Ethiopian forces, have just begun doing that.

The prime minister might be putting pressure on African Union and the United Nation to speed up deploying peacekeeping forces to Somalia by threatening to pull our forces out of Somalia, but, many including myself, believe that the prime minister is very serious because he fears Ethiopian forces might be bogged down in Somalia while trying to protect a weak Somali government with little support from the Somali population and led by individuals who continue to show no leadership ability or fail to see the seriousness of their country’s situation.

Relying on AU and UN bodies, two institution that continuously take too long to take any action when they are required to respond as the situation requires, to deploy troops to Somalia and protect the weak interim government is nothing but wishful thinking.

Ethiopia invaded Somalia with the goal of installing a friendly, viable, functioning Somali government, and re-establish Somalia’s institutions so that, Somalia in the long run can self sustain. We didn’t go there to let the AU or the UN to finish the job for us. Ethiopia can ask for assistance from the AU or the world body to assist us to bring some stability to Somalia, but this is Ethiopia’s job and we have to finish it with or without the AU or the UN bodies.

The Islamists have started low level insurgency to test our resolve. The warlords have not been disarmed contrary to what the prime minister told the BBC today. Somalia and the Mogadishu are reeling with arms, the independent thugs and militias are still armed and waiting in the shadows waiting for Ethiopian forces to leave or until someone gives them an alternative source of income. Somalia’s most difficult phase which was part of the mission of Ethiopian forces still remain.

What the prime minister needs to do rather than talk about withdrawal which sends the wrong message to insurgency Islamist, mushrooming militia’s and warlords so far afraid of declaring their selfish interest, is to do the following steps: help and demand from the interim government to disarm their population irrespective of region and clan with the exception of Somaliland, demand action from across the board of the leaders of the interim government, lobby and demand from the world community especially the U.S and European allies to help finance the disarming of Somalia’s militia and incorporating them into a strong centralized Somalia army, demand from the world community to embark on a path of a Marshall style job creation throughout Somalia, and building up Somalia’s institution so that the interim government can survive and allow the country to emerge from the current chaos.

What the prime minister needs to show now and what Somalia needs are his resolve and Ethiopia’s determination against Islamists who are obviously waging a low level insurgency and thugs affiliated with the Islamist who are mainly financed secretly by the warlords and powerful interest groups who want to see the interim government fail because they profit from Somalia’s chaos and lawlessness. Ethiopian forces have to use an overwhelming force against anybody who threatened their safety and that of the interim government and have to be given the full mandate to disarm Somalia’s warlord, interest group, and the business community militia’s.

Ethiopia must disarm Somalia now. It must demand from the interim government to disarm every region simultaneously so that no clan or region can have the excuse not to disarm. Ethiopia knows that no African or UN peacekeeping force will deploy to Somalia without Ethiopia disarming Somalia’s militia. The only reason no African country with the exception of Uganda is forthcoming with peacekeeping troops are their fear of the Somali population reeling with all kinds of weapons enough to wage a third World War any where in the world.

Many Somalis were skeptical of Ethiopia’s intention in Somalia and withdrawing now in the face of Islamist insurgency will only reinforce their suspicion and believe that, we were there in the first place to cause chaos instead of helping them to stabilize. The majority of Ethiopian supported the prime minister and the government’s action in Somalia, but, many will be confused and will not understand any hasty withdrawal.

Ethiopia has to see with or without the international communities help the rebirth of Somalia. Ethiopia has to ensure whatever the cost that Somalia emerges from two decades of anarchy and chaos. It is in our short and long term interest to see that Somalia finally becomes a Nation again. Any thing short of this wasn’t worth our sacrifice in human life and will not sit well with the majority of Ethiopian citizens. We don’t want to intervene Somalia again and to ensure this doesn’t happen, we have to finish the prime minister’s initial declared mission goal: disarm Somalia and help establish a viable, vibrant, secure, functioning Somalia Nation.

Kilil5 Editorial.