Saudi prince health signals possible tussle for power

05/04/08
By Andrew Hammond -     

RIYADH, May 4 - Saudi Crown Prince Sultan's visit to a Swiss clinic for medical checks last week provided a reminder of a potential power vacuum in the world's biggest oil exporter, analysts and diplomats say.

The official news agency SPA carried pictures of a healthy-looking prince smiling on Friday, appearing to lay to rest for now concerns that his health was failing.

Sultan, in his early 80s, had an intestinal cyst removed in Saudi Arabia in 2005 and diplomats say he is in weaker health than King Abdullah, who is thought to be in his mid-80s.

Sultan went straight from a holiday in the Moroccan resort of Agadir -- a royal favourite -- to Geneva where he stayed most of last week for "regular medical tests".

The large retinue of family and friends that travelled to Geneva to see him, according to Saudi media, raised concerns that the tests may be more than routine.

A government official said well-wishers simply took a chance for direct access to the prince outside Saudi Arabia, where protocol and affairs of state limit the scope for an audience.

But the brief Geneva sojourn highlighted potential instability in the country, a key U.S. ally and strict Islamic state, over who among the Saudi royal family will take the reins of power after the era of King Abdullah and his heir Sultan.

There is no designated second-in-line to the throne, and since coming to power in 2005 King Abdullah has set up an "allegiance council" of sons and grandsons of the kingdom's founder to regulate the affairs of the succession.

Saudi Arabia has no political parties or elected parliament and governance is the prerogative of the Al Saud family, legitimised by clerics who administer Islamic sharia law.

SECRET BALLOT

Although Saudis, analysts and diplomats of close ally nations have welcomed the council as an effort to avoid destabilising conflict over who rules, there is more obscurity than ever over who could succeed Sultan and Abdullah.

"The council opens the floor for everyone. It is by secret ballot, and of course that way anything could happen," said Saudi political scientist Khaled al-Dakhil.

Up to now, the best-positioned sons of the kingdom's founder Abdul-Aziz bin Saud have appeared to be Interior Minister Prince Nayef and Riyadh governor Prince Salman, both of whom are full-brothers of Crown Prince Sultan and former King Fahd.

Dakhil said the allegiance council could open the path for other sons of Abdul-Aziz such as Prince Mishaal, the council's chairman, or intelligence service chief Prince Muqrin, who are both seen as close to King Abdullah.

Grandsons could also garner support. Sons of Salman, Sultan, Abdullah, Prince Talal, former kings Fahd and Faisal are all prominent figures in politics, economy or the media.

But Sultan's ill-health could radically alter the stakes of the game. If he makes it to king, that would strengthen the position of his full-brothers from a mother of the Sudairy family, a prominent clan that married into the House of Saud.

If he does not, the Sudairys could suffer, some argue.

"(Sultan's) demise will diminish the power and influence of the Sudairys, allowing King Abdullah and his allies to pass the throne to another branch," the Gulf Institute in Washington, a Saudi dissident group, said last week in a report.

The stakes are high because of the reform efforts instituted by King Abdullah. A senior Western diplomat expressed concern about whether his successors would continue the same path.

The powerful clerical establishment and some of the Sudairy brothers have stood in the way of the reformers, who they consider too liberal, diplomat say. Much of the clerics' efforts have focussed on keeping women veiled, segregated and at home.

King Abdullah's policy of promoting moderation in Saudi Arabia's version of Sunni Islam has helped mend ties with Washington, damaged after it emerged that 15 Saudis were among the 19 Arabs who carried out the Sept. 11 attacks of 2001